Republican Reliance on the Christian Right (Book Notes: Religion, Politics, and the Christian Right)
In Religion, Politics, and the Christian Right: Post-9/11 Powers in American Empire, Mark Lewis Taylor writes:
[A]s a voting block, white evangelicals and the Christian Rightists among them are not the most formidable source of Bush’s Republican victories. “White evangelicals” constitute only 23.1 percent of the U. S. population. Even though they made up 40 percent of Bush’s popular vote in the 2000 elections and 36 percent in the 2004 elections, sociologists have shown that in presidential elections their voting block has affected only 1.6 percentage points of the Republican total votes gained. In close elections that can be determinative.
Nevertheless, the Republican Party is far more dependent on another block of voters, the affluent 20 percent of voters with incomes over $75,000 a year. This voting block of affluent citizens reliably affects nearly 4 percentage points nationwide in presidential elections on behalf of Republican presidents, thus having twice the electoral power than white evangelicals for Republicans.
Moreover, the affluent voting block can use its wealth and connections to shape electoral processes in other ways at are not available to the less affluent among white evangelical and other groups. Thus, if the Christian Right is to have determining power on elections and federal governance, it will have to work in tandem with, or maintain connections to, that wealthy sector.
By the same token, if the Democratic Party wishes to diminish Republican influence or success, it might make more sense to go after the votes of the affluent 20% rather than the conservatively religious 23%. Making significant inroads with the affluent voters would not only have a grater impact on nationwide results, but it would have a greater impact on fund-raising as well as allowing Democrats to avoid being seen as “caving in” to religious conservatism.
On the other hand, won’t they be “caving in” to the wealthy? The Democratic Party is defined in large part by its representation of minorities and the poor — how can it continue to do what while actively pursuing the votes of the affluent and wealthy? Perhaps it’s possible, but it won’t be easy.
If nothing else, this indicates that the power and influence of the Christian Right — both in the Republican Party and in the nation as a whole — may not be as great as many fear. This doesn’t mean that Republican politicians don’t pander to the Christian Right, but it suggests that they don’t have to pander to them as much as they themselves believe.
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Comments
I am a conservative atheist who votes republican. I am very concerned with the religious right’s influence on my party, in fact I say so to christian republicans online. The democratic party is not an option for me, they have been taken over by the far left, the anti-war movement in particular. I have actually not recieved much hostility from christian republicans when I have mentioned I am an atheist. The same cannot be said for liberals who are atheist, I have been called everything from naive to scum by them. That isn’t to say that they have been universally hostile, because some are very polite about my politics, luckily I have found some conservative atheist groups too. I will continue to argue for the separation of church and state when talking with christian republicans, but there are other important issues why I vote for the GOP.